Tesla (TSLA) stock gets downgraded to “Neutral” by Bank of America

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Bank of America analyst John Murphy has downgraded Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) from a “Buy” to a “Neutral” rating.

The analyst, however, also raised his price target for TSLA shares from $400 to $490 per share.

Tesla’s post-election rally and Q4 results:

  • As noted in a report from The Street, TSLA shares have seen a notable rise since Donald Trump secured his win in the 2024 U.S. presidential elections.
  • While TSLA shares already had momentum then from the company’s Q3 results, Trump’s win helped push a 60% surge in the company’s stock from the November elections to the end of 2024.
  • Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2024 vehicle delivery results were weaker than expected, with the company posting an overall annual sales decline. 
  • On the flip side, Tesla Energy had a blockbuster year by deploying a record 11 GWh of energy storage in Q4 and 31.4 GWh of energy storage in FY 2024.

Bank of America’s take:

  • While Murphy noted that Tesla may see improved investor sentiment, he highlighted that there are some execution risks for the company this year.
  • Following are Murphy’s comments:
  • “We downgrade TSLA from Buy to Neutral. Since our upgrade in April 2024, news flow and investor sentiment have shifted more positively. Catalysts around future growth drivers have been more fully recognized (most notably for Robotaxi). Our latest valuation analysis drives our PO to $490 PO (was $400). While this still implies upside, execution risk is high and TSLA is trading at a level that captures much of our base case LT potential from core autos, robotaxi, Optimus, and energy generation & storage. We move to Neutral.
  • In this report, we also update estimates to reflect our latest analysis of TSLA’s different businesses. There are catalysts ahead, which could support the stock. However, execution risk is high, supporting our Neutral rating. These include: 1) Introduction of a low cost model in 1H:25 and another new model in 2H:25 (key drivers of volume growth); 2) Launch of robotaxi in mid-2025; 3) Megapack production ramp at Shanghai assembly plant starting in 1Q:25; 4) Updates on FSD subscribers; 5) Start of broader production of Optimus, with target of 1,000 units by end of 2025; 6) Risk of new policy being less favorable for TSLA than expected; 7) A capital raise – positive as it would help accelerate growth.”

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Tesla (TSLA) stock gets downgraded to “Neutral” by Bank of America





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How many BEVs did OEMs sell in the U.S. in 2024?

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Tesla remained the dominant seller of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in the U.S. last year, with early estimates showing that the company sold more than most of its competitors combined. While data isn’t yet available for every automaker selling BEVs in the U.S., we took the time to compile some of the earliest estimates available for 2024 BEV sales, giving us an idea of where Tesla’s competitors landed in the year’s sales.

According to Cox Automotive, automakers sold 1.3 million BEVs in the U.S. in 2024, making up 8 percent of the total market share of nearly 16 million vehicles sold across powertrain types. EV sales also jumped in Q4 to 356,000 vehicles, marking a 12 percent jump year over year.

Cox also expects EV deliveries to surpass 1.5 million in the U.S. in 2025, while 2023 deliveries topped out at 1.2 million.

General Motors (GM) and Ford took up the second and third spots in U.S. BEV sales in 2024, both following Tesla, which held first place decisively. GM’s BEV sales were made up of the Cadillac Lyriq, the GMC Hummer EV, the GMC Sierra EV, the Silverado EV, and the BrightDrop EV600 commercial van. Ford’s BEV sales were comprised of the Mustang Mach-E, the F-150 Lightning, and the E-Transit.

Toyota was one of the few other manufacturers to release specific U.S. and BEV data, with the latter being made up of those from the BZ4X and Lexus RZ. The vast majority of Toyota’s “electrified” vehicles is comprised of hybrid and plugin hybrid powertrains, along with the Mirai which sports a fuel cell powertrain. All of these electrified vehicle types are excluded from the figure below.

Hyundai’s BEV figure was made up of Ioniq 5, Ioniq 6, and Kona BEV sales, the latter of which is also offered in a hybrid version. The company’s subsidiary Kia had BEV sales including the battery-electric EV6 and EV9, and while the automaker also sells a BEV version of the Niro, it did not separate the vehicle’s hybrid and BEV versions in its report released last week.

It’s worth noting that Tesla doesn’t share figures for individual market sales, though the maker was estimated by Cox Automotive to have sold about 633,000 units to maintain the clear leader in the market. Others, such as Lucid and Rivian, deliver the vast majority of their vehicles in the U.S., though they do not break out region-specific figures. Meanwhile, similar estimates for the brands have not yet been shared publicly.

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Audi had 23,152 BEVs sold in the U.S. made up of its e-tron Q4, Q6, Q8, and GT lineups, while its parent company, Volkswagen, sold blank units comprised of the ID.4 and newly launched ID.Buzz, which was only sold in the market in the fourth quarter. BMW sold its battery-electric i4, i5, i7, and iX models in the U.S. last year.

Nissan’s BEVs included the Leaf and the Ariya, which saw year-to-date sales increases of 57 and 47 percent, respectively.

Cox Automotive is also expected to unveil its 2024 EV Sales report in the coming weeks, which should shed light on many of the automakers that have not shared market-specific figures.

You can see some estimates from Cox Automotive on the top EV makers in the U.S. in 2024 below, along with some figures directly from each automaker. Additionally, the source of the figures are linked near the bottom of the page.

How many BEVs did automakers sell in the U.S. in 2024?

  1. Tesla: 633,000 (Cox Auto estimate)
  2. GM: 114,432
  3. Ford: 97,865
  4. Hyundai: 61,797
  5. BMW: 50,981
  6. Nissan: 31,024
  7. Toyota: 28,267
  8. Audi: 23,152
  9. Volkswagen: 18,183

BEV sales in 2024 for OEMs that don’t release U.S. data, or for which estimates are not yet released

  • Kia: 43,732 (excluding Niro BEV figures, as these weren’t separated from plugin versions)
  • Lucid: 10,241 (includes deliveries in Canada and Europe)
  • Rivian: 51,579 (includes deliveries in Canada)
  • Mercedes-Benz: 2024 sales not yet released or estimated
  • VinFast: 2024 sales not yet released or estimated

You can see detailed sales results from each automaker using the links below, with most breaking out specific U.S. data. Figures for other companies that don’t break out region-specific numbers, such as Tesla, are based on estimates from Cox Automotive.

Audi | BMW | Ford | GM | Hyundai | Lucid | Nissan | Rivian | Tesla | Toyota | Volkswagen

Note: This article was published with the most up-to-date information available, though it will be updated as additional estimates and figures are released.

What are your thoughts? Did I miss any automakers or U.S. sales figures? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.

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Tesla vs. competition: How many BEVs did OEMs sell in the U.S. in 2024?





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Tesla’s sales in China jumped by 8.8% in 2024

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Tesla had record electric vehicle (EV) sales in China for the last month of the year and an increase in sales for the full year, again solidifying the world’s largest automotive market as an important one for the U.S. company.

On Friday, Tesla China reported that its 2024 EV sales rose 8.8 percent year over year to more than 657,000 vehicles, while the company’s global deliveries fell slightly by 1.1 percent to over 1.79 million (via Reuters). Tesla’s sales in China also jumped 12.8 percent in December from the previous month, landing a record monthly high of over 83,000 vehicles delivered.

Sales in the market made up 36.7 percent of Tesla’s full-year deliveries, and the company globally outpaced EV sales from China-based automaker BYD, which sold 1.76 million battery-electric units globally for a year-over-year increase of 12.1 percent.

READ MORE ON TESLA CHINA: Tesla China ends Q4’s last full week with 18,600 new vehicle registrations

Tesla also launched a number of late-term promotions in the Chinese market, including the extension of an RMB 10,000 yuan ($1,369.99) discount on the final payment for Model Y purchases.  The company also extended a five-year, zero-interest financing deal on its Model Y and Model 3 units, which is now set to continue until the end of this month.

The news of Tesla’s sales growth also comes as the upcoming Model Y “Juniper” has been spotted more frequently in both the U.S. and China, and as reports have said that the company’s Gigafactory in Shanghai has started producing the refreshed EV in increasing volumes. The company’s extension of the aforementioned promotions is also widely thought to be aimed at clearing out inventory in advance of the refreshed SUV.

In addition to producing vehicles for the Chinese market, Giga Shanghai produces vehicles for a number of surrounding markets in the Asia-Pacific region.

What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.

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Tesla’s sales in China jumped by 8.8% in 2024





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