Tesla set for ‘pivotal’ moment that marks ‘new chapter’ in company’s history


Tesla Robotaxi Day is set to be the company’s “pivotal” moment that will launch a “new chapter” in the story of the world’s most valuable automaker.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives says Tesla’s upcoming event, which is now less than a week away, is one that will be pivotal and change the outlook for the company.

No longer will analysts look at just deliveries and production figures and an expanding lineup for bullish sentiments.

Now, there will be more focus on self-driving, something Tesla investors have long been waiting for the market to recognize as one of the company’s biggest strengths.

Ives says Wedbush is expecting “key updates around the company’s projections on Cybercab scaling, overall cost per mile, a Tesla ride-share app, and a Generation 1 demo on the premises of the breakthrough technology designed to revolutionize transportation.”

Tesla expected to unveil ‘game changing’ autonomous tech next week: Wedbush

If Tesla comes through on these things, it will make for an event that can widely be considered a success.

Although expectations are relatively tempered, and some are even expecting a more technical event, it is still likely that enough will be revealed that investors should be encouraged.

Ives said in his note to investors on Friday morning:

“We believe this is a pivotal time for Tesla as the company prepares to release its years of Robotaxi R&D shadowed behind the curtains while Musk & Co. lay out the company’s vision for the future. We remain confident in the Tesla story, which has proven successful many times over the years, and we look forward to this long-awaited event as the next evolution of transportation unfolds. There are clearly a number of hurdles and questions the industry/investors want to hear about, including insurance, cost of the vehicle, timing, regulatory approval timeline, and overall operations, among other issues.”

What value Tesla can bring shareholders is another looming question of the Robotaxi event. Wedbush says it is still under the firm belief that autonomy, AI, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) are Tesla’s true path to a $1 trillion value, and this is without any other portions of its business.

Factor in an energy business that has reported two quarters that are outliers compared to past ones, with Q2 seeing the biggest deployment in company history and Q3 being lower but still outpacing other quarters by a long time, and Tesla is looking truly strong.

Tesla bull makes bold claim, says three cars will be unveiled at Robotaxi event

The only true concern among investors could potentially be when they will see growth annually.

Tesla is on pace to match what it delivered in 2023, and although it was transparent that things will slow down as it focuses on the next-gen platform, people will be anticipating 2 million annual deliveries and subsequent growth starting in 2025 or 2026.

Wedbush maintained its ‘Outperform’ rating and a $300 price target.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Tesla set for ‘pivotal’ moment that marks ‘new chapter’ in company’s history





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Tesla starts sending Cybertruck Non-Foundation Series order invites


Tesla has started sending out invitations to order the non-Foundation Series Cybertruck, which starts at $79,990 before options. While Tesla’s order page for the Cybertruck as of writing is still displaying the Foundation Series variant as of writing, the start of production for the all-electric pickup truck’s standard variants seems poised to start soon. 

The Foundation Series added $20,000 to the Cybertruck’s base price, which means that the Cybertruck All Wheel Drive (AWD), which starts at $79,990 before options, became a $99,990 vehicle, and the tri-motor Cyberbeast, which starts at $99,990, became a $119,990 all-electric pickup truck. The Foundation Series added a lot of extras and perks, but it did raise the entry price for buyers.

As could be seen in screenshots and videos that have been shared on social media platforms like X and forums like the Cybertruck Owners Club, the removal of the Foundation Series now enables customers to order the all-electric pickup truck without any extras. Thus, if a customer opts for a Cybertruck AWD with Core Wheels and Covers, Tactical Grey Decor, no Full Self-Driving (FSD), and no accessories, they could acquire the vehicle for $79,990 before taxes and fees. 

Tesla has not indicated if the Cybertruck AWD qualifies for the U.S. federal tax credit. Screenshots that were posted online also indicate that non-Foundation Series Cybertruck deliveries are estimated to start in October to November 2024. Interestingly enough, the range of the standard Cybertruck AWD is listed at 325 miles per charge, lower than the 340-mile Foundation Series Cybertruck AWD.

As observed by some members of the Tesla community, if customers order a standard Cybertruck with all the options that came with a Foundation Series vehicle, the difference in price becomes quite minimal. FSD, for example, costs $7,000 for early reservation holders ($8,000 for new orders), the Cyber Wheels and Covers cost $3,500, and the White Interior Color costs $2,000. 

Add in the $2,500 Tesla Shop voucher, 3D All-Weather Interior Liners, Gear Locker Dividers, Glass Roof Sunshade, D-Rings, L-Track Hooks, L-Track Bottle Opener, Center Console Tray, Powershare Home Backup capability, Powershare Mobile Connector, lifetime Premium Connectivity, and Off-Road Light Bar for the Cyberbeast that came with the Foundation Series, and it all comes to about a $3,000 premium or less for early adopters. Considering these savings, some customers have noted that the Foundation Series premium was worth it. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Tesla starts sending Cybertruck Non-Foundation Series order invites





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Tesla Analyst Shares of Three Growth Hurdles: Gene Munster


Tesla analyst Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management named three headwinds that might affect the company’s return to growth. 

On Wednesday, October 2, 2024, Tesla released its Q3 2024 delivery and deployments report. Tesla produced approximately 469,796 vehicles and delivered 462,890 units in the third quarter. It also reported deploying 6.9 GWh of energy storage products. 

TSLA bull Gene Munster interpreted Tesla’s Q3 2024 delivery report as a return to growth for the company as deliveries were up by 7% year-over-year (you) in September. 

“I was expecting a slight miss, predicting deliveries would be up 4% y/y (452k) due to the company facing triple demand headwinds. This is positive, as it marks a return to growth after being down 5% in June and 9% in March,” wrote Munster in a recent note. 

Munster outlined three headwinds that may impact Tesla’s demand or sales. 

The Macro

Munster refers to the macro viewpoint of Tesla as the auto industry grows to embrace electric vehicles (EVs) and the company’s market share lessens, particularly in the United States. Munster theorizes that Tesla’s US sales for September lagged compared to the rest of the world and “were up low single digits for the quarter.” 

On the upside, he believes Tesla lost a fraction of its EV market share in the third quarter, adding that the company’s rate of decline is probably less than most investors expect. 

“By 2030, I believe Tesla’s U.S. market share will be above 40%, compared to about 50% today, and well above most investors’ belief that market share will drop closer to 20%.”

EV Subsidies in Europe are Declining

Deepwater analyzed EV subsidies in Europe, looking at the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Norway, which account for nearly 20% of total EV sales. The firm saw a decline of 35% in EV subsidies. When it excluded the UK, which is no longer part of the EU, the decrease in EV subsidies was 24%. 

Elon Musk & Politics

Munster pointed out that Elon Musk’s political commentary has increased over the past few months, stating that it might present a headwind to sales. 

“Given that consumers are hyper-sensitive about politics and more than half of Tesla’s buyers lean politically left, this dynamic may have reduced deliveries by 5-10k during the quarter. This suggests U.S. numbers would have been 4% higher, and overall numbers just under 2% higher if not for the political dynamic,” he stated.

What do you think of Munster’s analysis?

If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via X @Writer_0100110.

Tesla Analyst Shares of Three Growth Hurdles: Gene Munster





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